Value Bets Is The Best Method To Beat The Bookies

September 16,2020
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Marko Vrakela

Using Value Bets To Beat The Bookies

Placing value bets is a skill that every bettor must develop. Bookmakers set odds based on their assumptions and the state of the market. In this sense, sometimes bettors can take advantage of the probabilities implicit in those odds. That's why value bets are the way to beat the bookies. The value we are talking about refers to the odds that hide opportunities for the bettor. But, what is a value bet, and how can we find them? Keep reading, and you will know it.

What are value bets, and how can you find them?

Value bets are those bets that are paid at a price higher than the price that should have. These bets are valuable to the punter because the probability implicit in the odds given by the sportsbook is less than the probability the bettor estimates for that result. To find value, bettors must estimate the probability of an event occurring. In the long term, a bettor will win if he can identify outcomes whose probability of occurring is greater than that implicit in the bookies' odds. To illustrate this point, it is necessary to analyze the probabilities implicit in the odds offered by sportsbook. Let's look at the following example:

Suppose Everton hosts Liverpool and the sportsbook sets the following odds:

6.50 For Everton's victory,
4.00 For the draw and
1.50 For Liverpool's victory.

With these values, we can calculate the probability implicit in the odds. We only have to divide 100 by these numbers to know them. Thus, Everton would have a 15.38% probability of winning. Likewise, the draw would have a 25% probability of occurring, and the Reds would have a 66.67% of winning probabilities. In this case, a bet will have value if the probability estimated by us is higher than the probability implicit in the bookie's odds.

What you should have in mind to make value bets

To obtain a good estimation of the occurring probability of an event, a proper investigation should be carried out. The match's circumstances must be analyzed. This includes team or player updates, statistics, injured or suspended players, and any other important detail. It is also important to look for the best odds in the market. For this, you must be registered in more than one sportsbook to detect the most convenient odds.

Finding value bets requires patience and analysis. In this sense, specializing in a sport can make things easier since you will be aware of important details. In this way, the bettor can obtain an advantage over the bookie by having information that not everyone handles. Currently, there are websites and apps dedicated to evaluating the main online sports bookies odds to detect value bets. These tools are a great help in saving time and effort.

Conclusion

Finding value bets is critical to long-term profit from sports betting. Of course, success is by no means guaranteed, but we can say that our chances of winning are increased.